Property market commentary

The Property Market Doesn't Care What You Think Your House Is Worth

Phil Spencer says sellers need realistic asking prices. Dominic Murphy explains why honest valuations matter more than ever in the 2026 property market.

By Dominic Murphy · 2 November 2026 · 8 min read

A familiar face, and a very familiar conversation

It's not every day you find yourself digging out a photograph from ten years ago, but seeing Phil Spencer's latest comments about the property market reminded me of when our paths crossed around 2015/16.

One of the properties we were marketing featured on Channel 4's Love It or List It, and I had the pleasure of meeting Phil during filming.

Fast-forward a decade, and Phil is making headlines in the i newspaper for suggesting that homeowners may need to be more realistic with their pricing if they want to achieve a quick sale.

I couldn't agree more. In fact, I've been making precisely this point throughout 2026.

But I'd go one step further.

This isn't simply about achieving a quick sale. It's about understanding the market you're actually selling in.

And, perhaps more importantly, it's about estate agents being prepared to tell homeowners the truth, even when it isn't what they want to hear.

We're not in the market of 2021 anymore

For much of this year, I've been having conversations with homeowners, investors and estate agents about the same fundamental issue.

Expectations.

The property market has changed. Buyer behaviour has changed. Affordability has changed. Mortgage costs have changed.

Yet some sellers, and indeed some estate agents, continue to approach pricing as though we're still experiencing the extraordinary market conditions of 2021.

We're not. And we haven't been for quite some time.

One of the biggest challenges is that homeowners naturally become anchored to a particular figure.

Perhaps it's what their neighbour achieved three years ago. Perhaps it's what an online valuation tool suggests. Or perhaps it's simply the amount they need to make their next move financially viable.

I understand all of those considerations. But none of them determines market value.

A property is worth what a willing buyer is prepared to pay in today's market. Not yesterday's market. Not the market we'd like to be in. Today's market.

That distinction is fundamental.

The problem with telling people what they want to hear

This is where I believe the estate agency industry needs to accept some responsibility.

For years, agents have competed for instructions by competing on the valuations they provide.

Now, which agent do you think the homeowner is most likely to favour?

Of course, a good seller will consider more than the valuation. But human nature is human nature.

If somebody tells you your biggest asset is worth considerably more than you thought, it's difficult not to be influenced by that opinion.

And occasionally, an agent may genuinely identify something the others have missed. But far too often, the higher figure is simply an attempt to secure the instruction.

Three months later, the property hasn't sold. Viewings have slowed, the initial excitement has disappeared, and the agent begins discussing a price reduction.

The homeowner is understandably frustrated. They were told their property was worth £500,000. Now they're being encouraged to reduce it to £475,000, perhaps even £450,000.

The uncomfortable question is whether the property was ever worth £500,000 in the first place.

I've seen it happen at every level of the market

This isn't a problem confined to average-priced homes. I've seen exactly the same behaviour at the upper end of the market, where the differences can run into hundreds of thousands of pounds.

I recently visited a homeowner following a personal introduction. It wasn't a conventional valuation appointment, and I had no particular intention of winning an instruction.

He had a lovely house. My advice was to bring it to market at offers in excess of £1.5 million — a deliberate pricing strategy to attract the attention of buyers, generate interest and give the property the opportunity to achieve the best price the market would support.

But he'd already received some rather extraordinary advice.

One agent had suggested £2.7 million. Another had indicated £2.25 million, confidently suggesting it was worth more than £2 million all day long. Other opinions were around £1.6 million and £1.7 million.

My recommendation was different: launch at offers in excess of £1.5 million, backed by a clear plan to encourage buyer engagement rather than relying on an ambitious headline figure.

The homeowner was understandably confused. He knew, deep down, that £2.7 million sounded ambitious.

But once somebody had planted that figure in his mind, the question became inevitable.

What if they're right? What have they seen that everyone else has missed?

And that's the danger.

The highest valuation doesn't just influence the asking price. It changes the seller's perception of their own wealth.

Suddenly, a carefully considered strategy of inviting offers in excess of £1.5 million feels disappointing. Not because the property has lost value, but because somebody has created an expectation that the market may not support.

That's not professional advice. That's potentially setting somebody up for months of frustration.

An asking price isn't a valuation

There's another important distinction that I think gets lost in these conversations.

An asking price is a marketing decision. A valuation is a professional opinion of what the property is likely to achieve, supported by evidence.

They are not necessarily the same thing.

There can be perfectly legitimate reasons to launch a property above, below or at its estimated market value.

A competitive asking price might encourage more viewings and generate multiple offers. An ambitious price might be appropriate for a particularly unusual property where comparable evidence is limited.

But there must be a strategy behind the decision. And that strategy needs to be explained honestly to the homeowner.

What concerns me is when the asking price becomes a substitute for proper valuation advice.

Because simply advertising a property for £750,000 doesn't make it worth £750,000. Nor does leaving it on the market for six months somehow validate the original figure.

The market ultimately decides.

A price reduction doesn't always mean the market has fallen

This is another point I've made repeatedly throughout the year.

When a property reduces its asking price, people often interpret that as evidence of a declining market. Sometimes it is. But sometimes it's simply the correction of an asking price that was wrong from the outset.

If a house worth £500,000 launches at £575,000 and subsequently reduces to £500,000, has it really lost £75,000 in value?

Of course not. It may never have been worth £575,000.

And that's an important distinction, particularly when discussing wider market performance. We need to separate actual achieved prices from the aspirations of sellers and their agents.

Equally, we need to move away from the assumption that property values must increase every year.

I was recently asked to consider a property within a wider investment portfolio that had been purchased around two years earlier.

The owner had bought well. But the market hadn't materially improved since the purchase.

My view was that achieving roughly the same value today would be a perfectly respectable outcome.

In a market where some comparable properties have declined, maintaining your value can represent a good result.

Property is a long-term asset. It isn't a guaranteed annual increase in wealth.

Why honest advice matters

I've spent much of my career building a reputation for being open, honest and transparent with clients.

That hasn't always made me the most popular person in the room.

I've lost instructions because I wasn't prepared to support an unrealistic asking price. I've had difficult conversations with homeowners who genuinely believed their properties were worth considerably more than the evidence suggested.

And I've occasionally watched those same properties appear with another agent at a much higher figure.

But I've also had those homeowners return months later, having tested the market and discovered that my original advice was sound.

It's one of the reasons my phone continues to ring.

Not because I always tell people what they want to hear. But because they know I'll tell them what I genuinely believe.

That doesn't mean I'm always right. Nobody is. Property valuation is an informed professional opinion, not an exact science.

But there is an enormous difference between making a reasonable judgement based on evidence and simply presenting the figure most likely to secure an instruction.

Our job isn't to win a popularity contest in somebody's living room.

It's to provide professional advice that helps people make informed decisions about what is often their most valuable asset.

So, what should sellers be doing?

If you're considering selling your home, my advice is straightforward.

Don't automatically choose the agent who gives you the highest valuation.

Ask them to explain their evidence. Which comparable properties have actually sold? How long did they take to sell? What did they achieve compared with their original asking prices?

Understand the competition. Your property isn't being sold in isolation. Buyers are comparing it with every other suitable property available to them.

And perhaps most importantly, be clear about your objectives.

Are you genuinely motivated to move? Do you have a particular timescale? Or are you simply testing the market to see what might happen?

There's nothing wrong with any of those positions. But the right pricing strategy will depend on the answer.

For estate agents, my advice is equally straightforward. Be brave enough to have the difficult conversation at the beginning.

If the evidence suggests a property is worth £500,000, don't suggest £575,000 simply because you think that's what the homeowner wants to hear.

Explain your reasoning. Present the evidence. And if the homeowner chooses another agent because they prefer a higher figure, sometimes you have to accept that.

I'd rather lose an instruction for being honest than win one by creating expectations I cannot justify.

The market is what it is

Phil Spencer is absolutely right to encourage homeowners to be realistic.

But I would argue that this conversation should have been taking place long before November.

The market doesn't owe anybody a particular price. It doesn't know what you paid for your property. It doesn't know how much you've spent improving it. And it certainly doesn't know how much money you need to buy your next home.

It responds to supply, demand, affordability, confidence and the choices available to buyers.

As estate agents, we cannot control those things. What we can control is the quality and honesty of the advice we provide.

And in a more challenging market, that advice becomes more valuable, not less.

The best estate agent isn't necessarily the one who tells you your house is worth the most.

It's the one who understands what it's actually worth, explains why, and has a credible strategy to achieve the best possible result.

That's what good estate agency should be about. And frankly, it's what I've believed throughout my career.

About Dominic Murphy

Dominic Murphy is an experienced property professional and estate agency consultant who founded and grew an independent estate agency business before stepping away from day-to-day management. Today he works with independent agency owners on performance, profitability and long-term business value.